We expect non-bank payment providers to capture a significant share of the B2B cross-border payments market in the coming years.

For businesses, particularly SMEs and mid-market companies, these providers offer a more accessible and efficient alternative to traditional bank wire transfers or SWIFT network transactions. They provide faster settlement, greater transparency through the payment process, and are often lower-cost. These benefits are particularly valuable for businesses that regularly transact with emerging markets in illiquid currencies, deal with high-value transfers, or require frequent international payments for operations such as paying suppliers, managing international payroll, or facilitating treasury flows between company entities.

The B2B cross-border payments market represents a $500 billion revenue pool with $37 trillion in annual processed volumes. It is, nonetheless, a crowded and noisy category. But while providers' offerings may appear similar at face-value, there are often considerable differences in their banking relationships, licensing structures, risk tolerance, liquidity coverage, and technical integration capabilities. The complexity of managing currency volatility, liquidity, and regional regulations has led these networks to develop specific strengths by region and customer type. As a result, they often find themselves both competing and partnering with one another in this diverse market landscape.

We’ve broken out the landscape broadly based on the primary regional strength/focus/brand of the network owned by the provider. It is a significant opportunity for startups as the space is structurally fragmented, but deep enough to nurture multiple winners - and we expect fintech success stories will continue to emerge in this space.

As the landscape evolves in the coming years, we expect to see several trends play out:

• Adoption of new money-movement rails: as stablecoins and digital rails become a core infrastructure for cross-border money movement, reducing costs and settlement times
• Specialization in regional strengths: Providers will continue to develop comparative advantages in specific regions, payment use cases, and customer segments.
• Enhanced B2B-specific features: As adoption grows, we expect providers to invest more deeply in software features focused on their core customer base
• Continued market fragmentation: Given the diversity and complexity of the market, we expect new scaled players to emerge with strengths in specific regions and customer segments.

We believe that the most successful players in the coming years will offer comprehensive solutions for businesses, combining technological innovation with robust financial infrastructure to support global transactions, liquidity management, and regulatory compliance. Building strong regional expertise and partnerships will be crucial, enabling providers to offer truly global coverage while maintaining local market knowledge.

Here at Dawn Capital, we are actively looking for the next winner. If you’re a founder in this space, we’d love to hear from you.